Actually, that’s statistically untrue. Of the actors that have been nominated posthumously, only Peter Finch has won for his role in Network. Considering how the Academy has been using the Supporting Actor/Actress categories to promote new talent and that The Dark Knight doesn’t exactly fall into the demographic of the average Academy voter, I’m going out on a limb and picking Michael Shannon as a dark horse.
Couple thoughts. Your big picks seem close to mine (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Director, though those seem close to mine), and I keep wanting to lean to Rourke for Actor, but my gut has me going with Penn. My Best Supporting is actually Josh Brolin, since he’s been due for one for quite some time (still, I honestly think it may end up with Heath. Sympathy votes go a long way, and Heath seems to be this generation’s James Dean anyway; a win is quite likely).
I really thinking WALL-E will do better in the technical awards (I think it’s got the sound ones in the bag). Not sure on Benjamin Button (haven’t seen it yet), so at the moment I’m going with Iron Man and Hellboy II to take home their respective awards (Hellboy II certainly deserves Best Makeup for the Troll Marketplace alone). Some others for me: Dark Knight takes regular Editing, Art Direction, and Cinematography, In Bruges gets Best Original Screenplay (a longshot, but a sweet one all the same), Milk snags Best Costumes, the tribute to Stan Winston makes me cry, WALL-E Original Score, and Slumdog gets Original Song (I’m thinking Jai Ho, since it’s already got a nice dance number to go with it. Though I admit Down to Earth has a good shot, it being a good, safe fallback).
How could you not pick Heath Ledger, everyone knows dead people always get a sympathy vote?
Actually, that’s statistically untrue. Of the actors that have been nominated posthumously, only Peter Finch has won for his role in Network. Considering how the Academy has been using the Supporting Actor/Actress categories to promote new talent and that The Dark Knight doesn’t exactly fall into the demographic of the average Academy voter, I’m going out on a limb and picking Michael Shannon as a dark horse.
Yo, long time reader, first time commenter.
Couple thoughts. Your big picks seem close to mine (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Director, though those seem close to mine), and I keep wanting to lean to Rourke for Actor, but my gut has me going with Penn. My Best Supporting is actually Josh Brolin, since he’s been due for one for quite some time (still, I honestly think it may end up with Heath. Sympathy votes go a long way, and Heath seems to be this generation’s James Dean anyway; a win is quite likely).
I really thinking WALL-E will do better in the technical awards (I think it’s got the sound ones in the bag). Not sure on Benjamin Button (haven’t seen it yet), so at the moment I’m going with Iron Man and Hellboy II to take home their respective awards (Hellboy II certainly deserves Best Makeup for the Troll Marketplace alone). Some others for me: Dark Knight takes regular Editing, Art Direction, and Cinematography, In Bruges gets Best Original Screenplay (a longshot, but a sweet one all the same), Milk snags Best Costumes, the tribute to Stan Winston makes me cry, WALL-E Original Score, and Slumdog gets Original Song (I’m thinking Jai Ho, since it’s already got a nice dance number to go with it. Though I admit Down to Earth has a good shot, it being a good, safe fallback).
Whoops, meant to say that I see Director, Adapted Screenplay, and Director as a lock right now, not repeat ‘close to mine’. My bad.