Posts Tagged ‘prediction’
5 items.
Reflecting on King Kong’s box office "failure" on Wednesday got me thinking about this noise I’ve been hearing about a software program that can predict a movie’s success. Have you guys heard of this?
Apparently, some egghead at Oklahoma State University wrote a software program that can predict whether or not the next Hollywood turd-burger is going to be hit by applying seven criteria to each movie and averaging them out – rating by censors, competition from other films at the time of release, strength of the cast (or Star Pow-ah!), genre, special effects, whether it is a sequel and the number of theaters it opens in.
Using a "neural network" (shades of Data from Star Trek: The Next Generation, here) to process the results, films are placed in nine categories. A "flop" meaning less than $1 million at the box office. A "blockbuster" meaning more than $200.
The study proved that 37% of the time, the network accurately predicted which category a film fell into. 75% of the time it was within one category of the correct answer. Spider-Man and Shrek were correctly identified as blockbusters. Waking Up In Reno and Running Free were pegged as flops. I guess it must be right, because I’ve never heard of either of those last two movies.
Professor Ramesh Sharda has been working on the program for over seven years and has analyzed more than 800 films before publishing a paper appearing in the journal Expert Systems With Applications, set to be published in February 2006.
Naturally Sharda is already in discussions with a "major Hollywood studio" (he wouldn’t say which one) to further refine the system to improve its accuracy.
I think any movie fan with a heart and a mind knows that this specific leap in technology can only mean bad things for audiences. Clearly Sharda is someone who actually HATES movies and doesn’t want you to have a good time spending your entertainment dollar. Apparently he believes your discretionary income should go to more college scholarships. Or perhaps the athletic program. GO OSU, COWBOYS!
A program like this could turn movie marketing on its ear. Think about all the little brain trusts studios currently hire to handicap the success of a film. It’s understandable to a degree. Studios and producers make increasingly larger investments. They want to protect those investments. But by using the criteria outlined in Sharda’s program, Hollywood money-handlers could potentially deep six a movie before even one roll of film is shot. If our good friend H.A.L. doesn’t think your movie has enough star power, you’re done. Too much potential competition at the time of your film’s release? We’ll bury it in September.
Film’s are already being treated more like disposable product and less like art. I’m not taking the shallow view on this. I know that as long as there has been entertainment, there are pictures out there that will be treated as such – nothing more than a mild diversion.
But at the same time, would a movie like Apocalypse, Now or even Citzen Kane be made today with all the market research and bottom-line thinking that seems to have poisioned the industry? Films for adults are dumbed down to PG-13 so studios can reach further into the pockets of teens with disposable income. Potentially great films are rushed into theaters prematurely without much care because, "Hey, we can always make it up on the back-end with DVD sales!"
A program like this will continue to shift the balance away from thoughful expression and more toward commerce. The two can exist side-by-side if given room to flourish, but that doesn’t seem to be the industry focus anymore. Movies will end up looking more and more alike. Celebrity status rather than good stories will play a larger factor into what films get made. There will be less films for adults who are seeking serious and intelligent options and the overall artistry of cinema gets dumbed down to the lowest common denominator. Culture evaporates and America continues to earn its stripes as the home of dum-dum entertainment and overweight popcorn jockeys.
People wonder how films like Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo can continue to be made. It’s seeds like Sharda’s program that force us to reap the harvest of mediocrity.
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Who knows what it is about Jared that Tom has such a hard time lying to him. He just cracks under the pressure!
Incidentally, the counters for the Web Comics List reset this week, so if you’d like to lend your support by voting for Theater Hopper, that would be great. Right now we’re getting spanked by my good buddy "Mighty" Mitch Clem who recently launched a new comic called San Antonio Rock City. It’s hard to begrudge him. The comic is flat-out hilarious. Autobiographical and honest. Two great tastes that go great together.
Now let’s rip that number one spot out of his hands like the proverbial baby from which candy is stolen.
Originally I was going to do a comic about how lame the remake for When A Stranger Calls looked, but I’d be telling you guys something you already know. When I started to pick up vibrations that "media analysts" were predicting the forthcoming Oscar’s telecast to be one of the lowest rated ever… Well, it just tied in too perfectly with Wednesday strip, so I decided to follow the narrative thread.
Sidebar: Can I call myself a "media analyst" since I draw this comic and write this blog? I’d like to think I can. I’m going to start putting "media analyst" on all my business cards. It’s not like you have to be accredited for such things…
Back on track. It doesn’t surprise me that analysts are handicapping the broadcast. Really, I don’t think it matters. So what if there were no huge blockbusters this year that the Academy could get behind. Truthfully, I’d rather see a smaller picture like Brokeback Mountain go home with the Oscar for Best Picture than some bloated epic like Titanic. Anything that might jolt the Hollywood system from it’s slumber I think is good. Maybe they’ll realize that they’ve been beaten out of their own game by the independents and go back to making, y’know, FILMS THAT MATTER!
Quick question: Have you guys noticed a shift in tone in regards to Brokeback Mountain since it emerged as the Oscar frontrunner – the film with the most nominations?
This used to be The Little Movie That Could. Lots of big obstacles for a gay-themed romance to make it big in the flyover states. Lots of chatter about how "brave" Heath Ledger and Jake Googlely-hall were for risking their careers with these roles.
Now that it’s been established that almost everyone loves it. (Well, everyone except Utah Jazz owner Larry Miller) it seems as though people have turned their back on the notion that Ledger is the front-runner for the Best Actor award. People are starting to resent his mumbling performance as an "actory" tic. More and more people seem to be siding with Phillip Seymour Hoffman for his performance in Capote. To me, he’s looking less and less like a dark horse as time goes by. Maybe people aren’t willing to let Ledger slide after making films like The Four Feathers and The Order.
Admittedly, Ledger looked like he was just about finished career-wise. Brokeback reinvigorated him in the minds of audiences. That’s huge collateral right there. Maybe it’s best not to get too greedy and walk off with that statue. Especially in the light that Hoffman has quietly being doing his thing and rocking each and every performance he’s ever given. Often times, he’s the best thing about any movie he’s in. He was certainly the best thing in Along Came Polly – the only movie on his recent resume that I would consider a career misstep.
At any rate, there’s something to be said for workman-like effciency. He does a good job. He should be recognized for it. I say this without even having seen Capote yet. Damn, I need to amend that.
Anyway, just random thoughts floating around in my head.
Hey, Americans! Do you have plans for the Superbowl this weekend? We’re going to a friends house. I’m going with the Steelers even though I know nothing about either team. I guess I saw the playoffs and it seems to me the Steelers want it more. Beyond that, I’ll have my eye out for new commercials.
Last thing I’ll mention THE BIG SALE that’s been going on in the store since last week will wrap up on Monday, February 6th. That means this weekend is your last opportunity to take advantage of super-low prices on all garments. T-shirts are $9.99. Baby-doll tees are $14.99 and our lone, remaining hoodie is $24.99. Inventory is limited, but all quantities posted are up to date. Take advantage of this sale! I’m taking them down after next Monday, so this weekend is your last chance!
Thanks to everyone who has made purchase so far. People who placed orders last week should have seen their orders arrive this week. Accordingly, orders placed this week means you’ll be getting your goodies next week! I appreciate the support!
Be sure to sign up for our mailing list so you’re first in the loop when we announce our new merchandise in the near future!
Thanks again and have a great weekend!
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Something I enjoy writing for the comic is the dynamic between Tom and Cami. As a married couple, they can do and say a lot more – I think – than characters who simply orbit each other. There’s none of that “will-they-or-won’t-they” drama. No lingering threat to the relationship. I realize that limits the potential for drama in the strip. But drama has never really been what Theater Hopper is about.
My hats off to people who can write that kind of stuff. It’s a tightrope walk, to be sure. I’ve just never had the patience for it. To have two characters who are married takes a lot of the pressure off. You can just write them as people.
I had a hard time coming up with the joke for today’s comic. There aren’t a lot of movies out right now that are impressing me. I could have done a comic about The Ruins, but it looks like standard horror boilerplate. Nothing inspired me. Then there’s Martin Scorses’s documentary of The Rolling Stones called Shine A Light, but what route can you go there except the tired “they’re really old!” joke.
I was trying to put something together for Nim’s Island, which is a movie I couldn’t care less about since it looks like a by-the-numbers kids adventure movie. That is, until I saw Gerard Butler was in it.
Of course, being both a nerd and a slave to popular internet meme’s, my mind immediately went to 300 and how I could incorporate it’s style or catchphrases into the strip.
I went around and around trying to think of something satisfying, but became annoyed with myself for jumping on a bandwagon about 14 months too late. Then I remembered that there are lot more unfunny parodies of 300 than funny ones. And then I became sad…
So I went another direction with it! It feels good to stick it to people who don’t know when to let a trend die.
Like myself.
Real quick – has anyone noticed that they’re pronouncing Garard Butler’s name weird in the commercials for Nim’s Island. They make it sound like “Jared.” It’s weird.
Or maybe that’s the way we’re SUPPOSED to be saying it and we’ve been ignorantly insulting him the whole time?
Oh, well. Not much else from my end of the universe. Thanks for swinging by the site! See you here Monday!
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It’s dangerous to ponder out loud sometimes. Your questions can come back to haunt you in weird ways…
After being forced to endure relentless and uninspired marketing “synergy” for Hop during NBC’s Thursday night line-up of comedies, I knew I wanted to do a comic about Universal’s holiday-themed cinematic offering.
That’s when I remembered this comic of mine from 2008, where I questioned why there weren’t any Easter-themed movies (aside from the obvious Biblical ones, of course). There seemed to be an opportunity for a secular family movie in this realm. Why hadn’t it happened before.
As and you shall receive, I guess. Considering it takes about three or four years to produce a computer-animated film, I’m kind of weirded-out by the coincidence.
The fact that the movie is produced by the team that brought us last year’s Despicable Me gives me a scintilla of hope. Based on the trailers, I was convinced that Despicable Me was a complete waste of time. But I was wonderfully surprised when I finally sat down to watch the film.
Hop suffers from a similar problem. There is literally nothing about the plot that I can tell you except that baby chicks apparently want to take over Easter and that the lead character poops jelly beans. In fact, considering the film comes out on April Fool’s Day, I’m still not completely convinced we aren’t all being punk’d.
Any time a movie’s marketing campaign leads with the scatological, you know right away you’re in deep doo-doo.
What I find weird is how they roped James Marsden into it? Was Marsden perhaps annoyed that Jason Lee snagged the lead in Alvin and The Chipmunks and figured this was the next best thing? This, combined with Marsden’s voice work on Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore last year really has me worried about a lead actor that is otherwise very winning. All this kiddie flick stuff makes me think he has a niece somewhere that he’s trying to impress.
At least Russell Brand has some culpability from this thing. Although why you’d want a former heroin addict like Russell Brand to voice the lead character in your family movie is a decision only Hollywood could make. I guess giving the Easter Bunny a vaguely sneering English accent makes him more exotic? Not sure what the logic is behind that one.
I’m giving Hop a hard time and probably unjustly so. I actually hope that the movie is more than the sum of its parts because we’re actually considering taking Henry to it this weekend. I don’t know if it’s because I’m desperate to some movie – ANY movie – that I’m willing to line up for this abuse or if it’s I’m morbidly curious, or both. But if we end up going, I’ll let you know how it turns out.
In the meantime, if you want my thoughts on some more traditional family entertainment, be sure to swing by the Bonus Materials blog. I posted a review of Bambi: Diamond Edition on Blu-ray over the weekend that people have been very complimentary of. I was surprised how much I enjoyed the film considering that the only thing I remember of it is the cutesy stuff. If you haven’t seen Bambi in a while, read my review and see if you don’t fit into that category as well.
Be sure to leave comments about this comic as well. Is anyone else anticipating Hop this weekend? Do you think we’ll see more secular Easter holiday offerings at the movie theater in the future? Do my pre-cognitive abilities suggest a potential career in solving murders? Let us know in the comments below!
In the m
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Recently I was informed that the producers of the “Not Another…” parody movie franchise (Not Another Teen Movie, Date Movie, Superhero Movie, Disaster Movie, Meet the Spartans) are coming out with a new movie later this year…
Yes, that’s right. Coming soon to a theater near you, Not Another Not Another Movie.
What could it possibly be about? “A struggling movie studio that’s willing to do anything to make a mint – even if it means ruining their reputation, and running the movie industry into the ground.” So says the plot synopsis.
At this point they’re practically DARING you to let them spit on your brains.
What’s amazing to me is that they were even able to round up any “name” performers for this one. I mean, Burt Reynolds, Chevy Chase and Vinnie Jones are exactly discerning actors. But they have a little bit of credibility. Why troll for laughs with this dead-end premise?
Incidentally, I will have it noted that I predicted EXACTLY this over three years ago with the following comic. I think I should be awarded some Internet Pointz for that…
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